This is a dynamic weather day. Not only will high winds and heightened fire concerns be on the table, but this evening a severe threat will be possible as well. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect for the Oklahoma Panhandle until 10PM as well as western Kansas and southwestern Nebraska until 1AM Saturday.
Fire Weather Warnings are in place for western Kansas and southwestern Nebraska through this evening as winds gusting over 65 MPH will be possible leading to fast-moving wildfires if sparked.
These gusty conditions will also kick up plenty of dust given the dry conditions in place. Reduced visibility due to blowing dust will lead to travel impacts across the region. High Wind Warnings are also in place today for western Kansas while portions of central into eastern Kansas remain under a Wind Advisory through tonight.
The wind is a result of a deepening area of low pressure across northeastern Colorado. A dryline associated with it hugging the Kansas/Colorado state line will be the focus for showers and thunderstorms to develop out ahead of it this afternoon and evening.
The Storm Prediction Center has maintained an Enhanced Risk for portions of western Kansas through tonight. Large hail at least 2″ in diameter or larger, damaging wind gusts upwards of 75 MPH as well as isolated tornadoes will all be possible.
Strong southerly winds are helping to build the moisture into the region. Large hail will be our primary concern along with an isolated tornado risk. Trends continue to paint the isolated activity struggling to survive past the evening hours.
As a cold front enters the picture from the west, this should provide the forcing for storms to redevelop tonight. These storms look to be more linear and pose the damaging wind threat through Saturday morning through central Kansas.
Saturday presents another risk for severe weather across central into eastern Kansas. All severe hazards from damaging winds, to large hail and isolated tornadoes will be possible. Storm activity looks to wane Saturday morning into the early afternoon.
As we work in more sunshine Saturday afternoon and temperatures warm out ahead of the slow-moving cold front, we will see showers and thunderstorms develop once again by the late afternoon and evening. Areas mainly east of I-135 stand the best chance at finding storms, some of which could be strong to severe.
A Slight Risk has been painted across portions of central into eastern Kansas Saturday. All severe hazards will be possible.
We will clear things out Sunday as temperatures reset to more seasonable levels through early next week. A few sprinkles are possible across southwest Kansas late Sunday into Monday but many will not see better chances for rain returning until the second half of the work week. Our next storm system looks to take shape Thursday. Expect daytime highs to warm from the 60s and 70s early next week to the 80s and close to the lower 90s by the end of the work week.
KSN Storm Track 3 Forecast from Meteorologist Erika Paige:
Tonight: Partly to mostly cloudy, windy. 30% chance of showers and storms. Lo: 66 Wind: S 20-40
Tomorrow: Mostly to partly cloudy, windy. 50% chance of showers and storms. Hi: 80 Wind: S 15-30
Tomorrow Night: Partly cloudy. 20% chance of showers and storms. Lo: 50 Wind: S/NW 8-18
Sun: Hi: 70 Lo: 44 Partly cloudy, breezy.
Mon: Hi: 65 Lo: 41 Partly cloudy, breezy.
Tue: Hi: 74 Lo: 50 Mostly sunny.
Wed: Hi: 78 Lo: 57 Partly cloudy, windy.
Thu: Hi: 80 Lo: 60 Partly cloudy, windy. 20% chance of showers and storms.
Fri: Hi: 85 Lo: 59 Partly cloudy, windy. 10% chance of showers and storms.
— Meteorologist Erika Paige