Sydney, Australia, Thursday, November 4, 2021
– With International travel from Australia set to
become much easier with no exemptions required from today,
and with it much more clarity provided to Australians around
quarantine measures upon return, travellers are set to book
flights at huge numbers to leave the country once again for
business and pleasure.
Yet some nations are set to be
more open to visiting Australians than others, with Canada,
Japan, and New Zealand emerging as the ‘safest bets’ for
Australians looking to both get past the custom gates and
experience a level of relative freedom once there without
significant exposure to COVID-19.
This is according to
leading independent data and analytics consultancy Decision Inc., which
today launched its Pandemic
Travel Risk Index. The Index tracks vaccination
rates, case numbers per million, stringency of quarantine
measures and the approved vaccines in the 10 most popular
travel destinations of Australians (by revenue spent) to
provide certainty to the travel sector as well as business
and leisure travellers across the country.
Users will
be able to scroll over a country on the map at the Decision
Inc. website, and be provided with vaccination rates,
approved vaccines and current quarantine measures in
place.
According to its analysis of the environment
around vaccinations, quarantine stringency measures and case
rates, Decision Inc. has ascertained that the three
aforementioned nations offer the highest level of normalcy
upon arrival.
Reviewing the analysis, Decision Inc.
believes Thailand would be a destination to avoid in the
immediate term, with low vaccination rate, high cases
numbers and mid-level stringency measures indicating a slow
return to normalcy. Conversely, Fiji may be a destination to
watch with a climbing vaccination rate, a low infection rate
and top stringency measures which are able to bring COVID to
heel quickly. The US is also worth considering with
reasonable vaccination rates and case numbers, though this
varies on a state-by-state basis.
The
Pandemic Travel Risk Index, available
for viewing anytime on the Decision Inc. website from
Thursday, November 4, lists out the vaccination rates,
quarantine rules and approved vaccines for multiple popular
travel destinations across the world.
When combined
with the data on current case rates and caseload trends
(below) travellers can access the most relevant data and
determine the ‘safest’ places to travel and experience
freedom of movement.
“Despite
welcoming ‘Freedom Day’, we do not operate in a
vacuum,” said Aiden Heke, CEO Australia, Decision Inc.
“While the Australian government has been clear recently
in its intent to open our borders and reduce the impact of
quarantine on arrival back on our shores, the same doesn’t
necessarily hold true of our most popular travel
destinations.
“We all want to know our prospects of
remaining healthy are as good or better at our destination
than where we left, and Australia’s prospects for COVID-19
economic recovery is trending the right way. With the Delta
variant continuing to wreak havoc in some regions,
travellers need to make educated choices if they are to
enjoy their trip or undertake business without potentially
looking at getting unavailable hospital bed treatment or
having to quarantine for an extended period, even if double
vaccinated.”
NARROWING THE TRAVEL FIELD
The
Decision
Inc. Pandemic Travel Risk Index is designed to
inform business and leisure travellers alike where are the
best places to travel without an extended quarantine period,
where they are likely to make it through based on the
vaccine they’ve had administered, and where they are least
likely to be exposed to COVID-19.
The data analysed
includes:
- The approved vaccines in each country,
an indicator of which borders are likely to allow our
approved vaccines through customs; - The vaccination
rates in each country; - Current Case Rates and
whether they’re declining or trending upwards;
and - Quarantine policy by country.
To
narrow the focus of the analysis, Decision Inc. analysed the
above indicators across Australia’s 10 most popular travel
destinations according to ABS data released
prior to the pandemic, ranked by the revenue each nation
accrued from travelling Australians:
ABS https://www.abs.gov.au/articles/most-popular-countries-aussie-travellers-2019
APPROVED
VACCINES AND VACCINATION RATES: A KEY INDICATOR OF A
SUSTAINED, OPEN BORDER
According to data compiled
from publicly available sources, Decision Inc. developed the
following dynamic Index which details the percentage of the
population vaccinated, the approved vaccines in that nation,
the population density, and new cases per million
population:
So,
while Singapore has a full vaccination rate of more than 80
per cent, its cases continue to rise, and it does not
recognise Astra Zeneca as an approved vaccine. Canada, while
its vaccination rate is slightly lower at 73.9 per cent, has
a low case rate and its approved vaccines are identical to
that of Australia.
“Many of us are desperate for a
vacation or need to travel for business reasons and need to
know if the countries program of COVID recovery is trending
the right way,” said Heke. “No one wants to end up in a
potentially unavailable hospital bed versus a pool side sun
lounge, but it is unfortunately a potential issue that
travellers need to consider, regardless of their vaccination
status.”
IS IT SAFE TO TRAVEL? THREE OF 10 STAND
OUT
Analysis of all the above factors has led
Decision In to determine that, as of today, New Zealand,
Canada, and Japan offer the most certainty when it comes to
experiencing some level of freedom on
arrival.
“Should we travel, you ask? In our
estimation, assuming the traveller has received the double
vaccination required to travel to most destinations, the
risk is worth it,” said Heke. “They just need to
consider the risks in each destination but with Canada, New
Zealand and Japan among our largest tourist destinations,
and Japan also being one of our largest business
destinations, the risk is worth the reward in our
estimation.
Conversely, the United Kingdom, despite a
clear mandate from Government to “live with Covid” and
with relatively few restrictions on the ground, has seen
cases spiral to 661 new cases per million. And Singapore,
despite topping the vaccination rates of analysed countries,
has seen cases increase to 610 per million which, among a
high-density population, poses risks to travellers and has
seen lockdown measures be put in place there once
again.
“Unpredictability is a constant reality of
living in a world still experiencing a pandemic, even with
vaccine availability increasing across the world,” said
Heke. “But borders are open, and planes are set to take
off again. It’s clear that people want to travel once
again, if not for business or leisure then to visit loved
ones they haven’t seen in two years. They just need to
weigh the risks based on the available
data.”
UNPREDICTABILITY ON A GLOBAL SCALE:
CERTAINTY NEEDED FOR THE TRAVEL SECTOR
Australians
here and abroad as well as Australia’s overall travel
sector – from travel agents to pilots and every
stakeholder in the value chain – have faced severe
uncertainty with regards to travel arrangements since the
beginning of the pandemic. And while the picture is becoming
clearer, it remains opaque and prone to unpredictability,
according to Heke.
“It’s been an incredible
challenge to book a flight in to or out of Australia and
know your pre-and post-trip quarantine status and costs, let
alone the likelihood of the trip occurring,” he said.
“This has left the travel sector in a state of economic
decay for the past 18 months, yet this is a state not
limited to Australia alone – though our hard border has
left the effects much more pronounced than many
others.”
“It is important to note that the world
remains unpredictable, particularly with the delta variant
and other variants of COVID-19 likely to emerge over the
next year,” added Heke. “But our analysis will be
ongoing and updated as new data and information
emerges.”
The Decision Inc. Pandemic Travel Risk
Index will be updated on a weekly basis through to 2022
and can be found here: https://decisioninc.com.au/insights-to-australias-top-10-travel-destinations/
About
Decision Inc. Australia
Decision Inc. is a
leading independent data and analytics consultancy which
delivers value from data faster. We serve the Australian
community and industry and believe great data and analytics
expertise will underpin economic recovery and prosperity. We
provide insights and accelerated business improvement
capabilities to help our clients in their pursuit of
progress.
