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19 First Alert Weather Team previews fall weather season

CLEVELAND, Ohio (WOIO) – The official start to fall is on September 22nd.

Cleveland’s most accurate weather team predicts what the next three months will look like in Northeast, Ohio.

Chief Meteorologist Jason Nicholas says La Nina could impact us this fall.

“La Nina, we hear about it, ‘La Nina’ and ‘El Nino,’ and it deals with the water in the Pacific Ocean. If it’s cooler than normal like it was last year, we call it a ‘La Nina.’ And the new data does point to La Nina returning. Now, if we look to what happened last year, November 2020, 9th warmest on record. So what does it mean for us? Warmer than average temperatures, but some cold blast late, meaning mid-to-late November. And with the lake water warm, that means lake effect stays into play…so we have to watch out for some late season lake effect rain showers or either mid-to-late November, it happens, some lake effect snow squalls as well.”

But what does that mean in terms of precipitation? Late summer saw some of the highest rain totals in recent history. but according to meteorologist Samantha Roberts, a wet summer doesn’t necessarily mean a wet fall

“In September, we typically see about four inches or just under that, over the course of the whole month. This September, we’re lagging a little bit, and we could use a little bit of rain. The month of October typically brings around three and a half inches of precipitation, and heading into November, we average around three and a quarter.” says Samantha.

But what about snowfall during the fall season?

“As we start to get into October, we see a little bit of snow, particularly later in the month. I think this year that our snow chances increase as we head into November, getting a little bit of lake effect snow,” says Samantha.

19 News is the station that keeps you and your family safe when the weather takes a turn for the worse. So will Northeast Ohio see any powerful storms?

Chief Meteorologist Jason Nicholas says, “When you look globally, is that we’ll have a warmer than normal fall season, especially the farther east you go. So what does that mean? It typically may mean severe weather, and it also keeps the lake warm. So why does that matter? It might not matter in fall, but it will matter in the winter if we keep that lake water temp and that means lake effect.”

“So when you have these clashes of the season, you do end up often, particularly in the spring with severe thunderstorms. But in this part of the country, even in the fall, we can see severe storms, and we’ve seen that in the past,” says Samantha Roberts.

Will storms or snow impact the biggest holiday during the fall season and the traveling that comes with it?

“That’s not a holiday where we typically see a ton of rain. Using data over the course of 149 years, we average just over a tenth of an inch of rainfall on Thanksgiving in Cleveland.”

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